The U.S. Presidential Election is set for November 5, 2024. This election has significant global attention, with major implications for neighbouring countries like Canada. The main candidates are Kamala Harris for the Democrats and Donald Trump for the Republicans. Both candidates have distinct approaches to economic policy, trade, environmental regulations, and immigration, all of which could impact Canada directly or indirectly.
Key Areas of Impact
1. Economy
Currency Fluctuations: Changes in U.S. economic policy could impact the Canadian dollar and overall financial market stability.
Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve’s policies could influence the Bank of Canada’s decisions, affecting everything from mortgage rates to investment trends.
2. Trade and Tariffs
USMCA Agreement: Both candidates may approach the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement differently, impacting tariffs, imports, and exports across the border.
Supply Chain Dependencies: Policies that prioritize domestic production in the U.S. could strain Canadian industries reliant on cross-border supply chains.
3. Energy and Environment
Oil and Gas Sector: Policies on drilling, pipelines, and energy independence could affect Canada’s energy exports.
Climate Policy: Climate agreements and environmental regulations will either pressure Canada to align with the U.S. or lead to policy mismatches.
4. Immigration
Visa Policies: Shifts in U.S. immigration policy could redirect skilled labor flow to Canada.
Border Security: Stricter border controls or security measures could complicate cross-border travel and trade.
Candidate Policies and Their Potential Impact on Canada
Kamala Harris (Democrat)
Economy:
Emphasis on supporting middle-class growth and higher taxes on corporations.
Impact: Canadian businesses that operate in the U.S. could face increased taxes and regulations, while Canada may appear more attractive for tech and other industries.
Trade:
Likely to support international trade and collaboration.
Impact: Canada may benefit from more predictable and stable trade relations, minimizing the risk of sudden tariffs.
Environment:
Strong advocate for climate change policies and renewable energy investments.
Impact: Canada’s oil and gas sector may face challenges, but there could be opportunities for renewable energy partnerships.
Canada Energy Regulator: Annual Canadian crude oil exports to the U.S.
Immigration:
Focus on humane and inclusive immigration policies.
Impact: Less restrictive U.S. immigration policies could reduce Canada’s appeal as an alternative destination for international talent.
Donald Trump (Republican)
Economy:
Focus on tax cuts and deregulation to stimulate growth, particularly for businesses.
Impact: The Canadian dollar may weaken if U.S. policy strengthens their economy, potentially boosting Canadian exports but raising import costs.
Google Finance: USD/CAD trend over the last 5 years.
Trade:
“America First” approach could see renewed emphasis on tariffs and domestic production.
Impact: Canada may face disruptions in sectors like automotive, agriculture, and steel, especially if new tariffs are introduced.
TD Economics: Projected impact of 10% tariffs on Canadian CPI.
Environment:
Prioritizes U.S. energy independence, with fewer environmental regulations.
Impact: Canadian oil exports may benefit in the short term, but divergence in climate policy could lead to diplomatic friction.
Immigration:
Stricter immigration policies and border control.
Impact: This could increase Canada’s appeal to skilled workers seeking an alternative destination, possibly boosting the tech and skilled labor markets.
Summary
Both Harris and Trump offer different paths that will shape Canada’s economy, trade, environment, and immigration flow. For Canadians, understanding these potential shifts can help prepare for changes in our economic and geopolitical landscape.
